5 PM Advisory: Hurricane Dorian Remains A Cat 2

From the National Hurricane Center, Dorian remains a Cat 2 with maximum sustained winds at 110 mph and moves NW at 6 mph.

Winds are increasing along the east coast of Florida.

New Watches and Warnings have been issued as Dorian makes its way along the coastline.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Surf City,

North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Duck, North

Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse

and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Savannah River to Edisto

Beach, South Carolina, and from South Santee River, South Carolina,

to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended north of Duck, North Carolina

to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the

North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague,

Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning

from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet, Florida.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter

Inlet.

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...27.7N 78.7W

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* North of Surf City NC to Duck NC

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas

* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

* Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA

* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a

life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and

property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United

States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as

additional watches or warnings may be required tonight and

Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the

United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located

near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 78.7 West. Dorian is moving

toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster

motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight.

A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed

by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this

track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to

the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast tonight through

Wednesday night. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or

over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through

Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher

gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the

next couple of days.

Dorian has become a larger hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend

outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-

force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve

reconnaissance data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Grand Bahama

Island and along the Treasure Coast of Florida tonight. Tropical

Storm conditions are expected to begin within the Tropical Storm

Warning area in north Florida and Georgia late tonight or early

Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane

Warning area in Florida overnight. Tropical Storm conditions will

begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas Wednesday,

with hurricane conditions by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand

Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the

coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft

Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft

Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft

Jupiter Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of

strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close

the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall

totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm

totals over 30 inches.

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach

through Georgia and across southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and

the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through

North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east

coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along

the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday

into Thursday.

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